Climate change and wildfires
Australia is at the beginning of what promises to be a “catastrophic” fire season with no “meaningful reprieve” in sight, according to NSW’s Rural Fire Service Commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons. At least four people are dead and hundreds of homes have been destroyed already. And summer hasn’t even begun.
The role of climate change in these fires has prompted heated debate, with leading politicians - including Prime Minister Scott Morrison - refusing to address it.
The sky over Sydney is bushfire red.
So has climate change caused these fires? And what does it mean for New Zealand?
Scientists have been warning for years that a hotter, drier climate would contribute to Australia’s fires becoming more frequent and more intense. Which means even those caused by an arsonist will burn further and faster than before.
Dr Richard Thornton, chief executive of the Bushfires & Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre, told the BBC that it’s difficult in general to attribute climate change impacts to a specific event, particularly while the event is running.
A journalist’s kit sits among the charred remains after fire ripped through NSW.
"But what we do know is that the average temperature in Australia now is running about 1C above the long-term average," he said, adding fire seasons were starting earlier and "the cumulative fire danger" in many areas was growing.
Australian National University climate scientist Dr Imran Ahmed called it a direct link: "Because what climate change does is exacerbate the conditions in which the bushfires happen."
New Zealand fire scientist, Grant Pearce, of the Scion Rural Fire Research Group says research shows our fire risk is also likely to increase with climate change, “with a greater frequency of severe fire weather days in many parts of the country - in some cases by 2-3 times current levels.”
Fire seasons are also getting longer, both starting earlier and extending longer into autumn.
The after effects of the 2017 Port Hills fire.
"This means the potential for not only more fires, but more larger fires exhibiting the sorts of extreme fire behaviour seen in Australia and California, and locally in the 2019 Nelson/Tasman and 2017 Port Hills wildfires,” Pearce says.
“We are already seeing an increasing trend in New Zealand in human impacts from wildfires, especially in the rural-urban interface where urban development meets rural vegetation fuels, with more homes being destroyed or damaged, and greater numbers of people being evacuated.
"More fires also mean more wildfire smoke, with greater potential health impacts for vulnerable people, including people with respiratory conditions, and the very young and elderly. Smoke can also impact on air travel and tourism, due to particulate matter in the air, reduced visibility and air quality, as well as to the wine industry through wine taint.
"Whilst not having as severe a fire climate as Australia, or the US, due for the most part to our maritime environment, complex terrain and associated microclimates, New Zealand does still have a wildfire problem in many parts of the country (such as Marlborough and the east cost of both islands).
“Significant wildfires are experienced in many areas every fire season. There is also the potential for our fire climate to worsen significantly in future, bringing an increase in the number of fires, including extreme fire events such as those currently being experienced in NSW and Queensland."